Back to school, better weather and overbearing pumpkin spice marketing are all signs of the new season in Orlando. I was inspired to look deeper into Orlando’s real estate trends this season for a few reasons.
The end of this summer marks the first full season of real estate since the onset of the 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic-influenced market. It seems there have been recent articles and general talk of a slow down or shift in real estate. A look below will show the real estate trends in Central Florida.
Sale prices and equity have increased significantly since 2019 in most places in the U.S. and especially Florida. In this report, you'll also see the varied changes between some of the major cities of central Florida. Now let's see exactly what is happening in Central Florida with the real estate trends and if in fact there is a slowdown.
Below are graphs, charts, and explanations of the YoY trends from the summer of 2020 and 2019 in multiple locations around Orlando. The beginning and middle of summer historically have more activity compared to the end of summer. The beginning of summer 2020 was when the real estate in Florida really started picking up in pace. Therefor, I chose to compare 2019 to as well because during June through August of 2020, the market activity was erratic due to the Covid pandemic in some areas even though there was an increase in activity in most major cities of Florida.
The areas we will look at include the following:
- City of Orlando
- Winter Park
- Winter Garden
- Lake Nona Region
- Oviedo
- Lake Mary/Heathrow
- Orange County
- Orange County Single-Family homes without pools
- Orange County Single-Family homes with pools
- Orange County Multi-Family
Here are what to expect in this report:
- Average Sale Price: The average prices that homes were sold and closed.
- Average active days on market (ADOM): How long it took to get an accepted offer.
- Average Sale Price/List Price ratio: Percentage of what homes sold for relative to the asking price.
- Average Number of Sales per Month
- Average Number of new listings per month.
General Real Estate Trends in Central Florida
The general trends in Central Florida are that homes are getting contracts signed 2 times faster compared to the previous years as the active days on market decreased by half or more in most areas. The current supply of homes is historically low with 3 weeks to 6 weeks of inventory depending on the location and home type. The average Sale Price to List Price Ratio has increased consistently across areas by about 2% (from 98% to 100%).
Sales activity and new listings have both increased since this time in 2020. However, sales have increased at a greater rate compared to the amount new listings. The amount of the difference between closed sales and new listings varies considerably depending on the area and type of home. A look below will show the specifics and how the different areas can have different trends.
City of Orlando Real Estate:
The city of Orlando had an average sale price of $367,000 which is a YoY increase of over 19% from 2020 and 28% from 2019. The active time to contract decreased by 50% an average of 20 days in 2021. There was a 20% increase in sales per month with only a 15% increase in new listings. This shows a trend of a decreasing supply and increase in demand in Orlando.
Winter Park Real Estate:
Winter Park had an average sale price of $593,607 which is a YoY increase of over 12.3% from 2020 and 20.8% from 2019. The active time to contract deceased by roughly 55% to an average of 22 days on market in 2021. The number of sales increased by 3.5% YoY while New listings decreased by 4.5% YoY. This shows a trend of a decreasing supply and increasing demand in Winter Park, Florida.
Winter Garden Real Estate:
The city of Winter Garden had an average sale price of $505,645 which is a YoY increase of over 13% from 2020 and 23% from 2019. The active time to contract decreased by roughly 60% to an average of 16 days on market in 2021. The number of sales increased by 13% YoY while New listings decreased by almost 7% YoY. This shows a trend of a decreasing supply and increasing demand in Winter Garden.
Lake Nona Region Real Estate:
The Lake Nona Region had an average sale price of $550,400 which is a YoY increase of over 30% from 2020 and 32% from 2019. The active time to contract decreased by roughly 69% to an average of 16 days on market in 2021. The number of sales increased by 11.7% YoY while New listings decreased by 11% YoY. This shows a trend of a decreasing supply and increasing demand in the Lake Nona Region.
Lake Mary / Heathrow Real Estate:
The Lake Mary/Heathrow area had an average sale price of $427,650 which is a YoY increase of over 12.8% from 2020 and 10% from 2019. The active time to contract decreased by roughly 65% to an average of 17 days on market in 2021. The number of sales increased by over 21%% YoY while New listings increased by 10% YoY. This shows a trend of a decreasing supply and increasing demand in Lake Mary and Heathrow.
Oviedo Real Estate:
The Oviedo area had an average sale price of $432,622 which is a YoY increase of over 15.3% from 2020 and 22.6% from 2019. The active time to contract decreased by roughly 60% to an average of 11 days on market in 2021. The number of sales decreased by 4% YoY while New listings decreased by over 10% YoY. This shows a trend of a decreased activity as well as a decreasing supply and increasing relative demand in Oviedo.
While each municipality or area can have different trends, so can the type of homes. To demonstrate this point, consider the data for single-family homes with pools, homes without pools, and Multi-Family homes in Orange County. There is a great difference in each as you will notice below.
Homes With Pools in Orange County, FL
The homes with pools in Orange County had an average sale price of $725,622 which is a YoY increase of over 27% from 2020 and 44% from 2019. The active time to contract decreased by roughly 60% to an average of 19 days on market in 2021. The number of sales increased by almost 17% YoY while New listings increased by only 6% YoY. This shows a trend of increased activity as well as a decreasing supply and increasing relative demand in Orange County for Homes with pools.
Homes Without Pools in Orange County, FL
The homes with no pool in Orange County had an average sale price of $395,839 which is a YoY increase of over 20% from 2020 and 26% from 2019. The active time to contract decreased by roughly 60% to an average of 16 days on market in 2021. The number of sales increased by almost 8.9% YoY while New listings increased by only 7.6% YoY. This shows a trend of increased activity as well as a decreasing supply and subtle increasing relative demand in Orange County for single-family homes without pools.
The difference between sale price averages, the YoY increase in price, the percent increase of the number of homes selling, and a decrease in inventory is far greater in homes with pools compared to homes that do not have a pool.
Multi-Family Homes in Orange County
This data included that of condominiums, townhomes, villas, and condo hotels. There was a far more drastic increase in the amount of multi-family sales YoY and a decrease in relative inventory compared to that of single-family homes in Orange County. The average sale price was up over 18% YoY to over $255,000 for Multi-Family homes. At the time this article/blog was written, there were about 1.3 months of inventory for Multi-Family in Orange County.
Is the Orlando real estate market slowing?
The real estate market in Orlando is not slowing. Depending on which city you're referencing, there are both increases and decreases in market activity. However, each city or area mentioned have a significant decrease in inventory, relative demand is still way up, and sale prices are 12% to 30% higher than this time last year. The real estate market here is likely not going to continue increasing at the same pace as the past two years. Supply and demand are still going to take a while to shift the real estate market to a slower pace in Central Florida.
It seems that Lake Nona and Winter Garden have increased in value as well as demand beyond that of the neighboring cities of Central Florida in the past two years. Perhaps it’s the appeal of new construction or the automated driverless cars of Lake Nona. Perhaps cities like Winter Park and Lake Mary are well established and there is simply not enough new development or current homeowners willing to relocate out of the areas. This limits the people relocating to Central Florida to search where inventory is available which is or was Lake Nona Region and Winter Garden among others. Also, the data in this article was pulled from the Stellar MLS and Corelogic. The above data does not reflect homes sold off-market. Many builders do not advertise all of their sales on the MLS, so the data for areas like Lake Nona Region and Winter Garden will not reflect activity as accurately as places like Orlando and WInter Park. In addition, the supply chain of building materials and limited constructions crews to keep up with the demand have forced many builders to limit how many new home sites get released for purchase in Central Florida.
Interest rates and inventory are both at historically low levels. The likeliness that working remotely is here to stay, the growth potential of Orlando, everything that makes Central Florida an attractive place to live, and the likeliness of Disney moving thousands of high-payed employees here all help ensure that home values and demand for real estate are going to be in Orlando for a long time to come.
